Epidemic dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in China during the transition from 'zero-COVID' to little-to-no intervention efforts medrxivpreprint LosAlamosNatLab Omicron COVID19 coronavirus covid
By Pooja Toshniwal PahariaFeb 17 2023Reviewed by Danielle Ellis, B.Sc. *Important notice: medRxiv publishes preliminary scientific reports that are not peer-reviewed and, therefore, should not be regarded as conclusive, guide clinical practice/health-related behavior, or treated as established information.
A few weeks following exit from zero-COVID, increased incidence of COVID-2019 -associated hospitalizations were reported. Further, at the end of December 2022, 40.0% to 50.0% of flight passengers traveling from China to Italy were diagnosed with COVID-19. The findings indicate widespread SARS-CoV-2 presence in China by the end of December 2022, contrasting with official statistics. However, data on the Omicron epidemic dynamics in China are limited.
The survey questionnaire obtained data on the status of SARS-CoV-2 infection, prior COVID-19 history, and the duration of their ongoing COVID-19-associated symptoms from 47,897 Chinese residents. The model estimates were validated using the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the Sichuan province Center for Disease Control and Prevention Health datasets.
The susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered model was expanded to encompass daily COVID-19 cases from widespread official testing and symptom-based survey responses.
The findings indicated that interventions should have been relaxed gradually, rather than abruptly, in conjunction with pharmaceutical measures to reduce the COVID-19 burden, lower COVID-19-associated hospitalizations and deaths, ensure adequate care to all patients, and prevent a COVID-19 overshoot.
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