ERG Forecasts Growth in Key Metals through 2025, Driven by Renewable Energy and AI

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ERG Forecasts Growth in Key Metals through 2025, Driven by Renewable Energy and AI
ERGEurasian Resources GroupMetals
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Kazakh mining company Eurasian Resources Group (ERG) predicts a positive outlook for key metals like copper, aluminum, and cobalt through 2025, fueled by increasing demand from renewable energy, consumer goods, and the electric vehicle (EV) sector. The company highlights China's significant investments in clean energy and its projected economic growth as key drivers for this expansion.

Kazakh mining company Eurasian Resources Group (ERG) shared its market expectations for 2025 and beyond on social media, emphasizing anticipated growth across key metals driven by advancements in renewable energy , consumer goods, and the automotive sector. The company forecasted a 4% year-on-year increase in the global copper market for 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.5% projected between 2024 and 2034.

This growth is attributed to the rising demand for copper in renewable energy applications and infrastructure development. The development of renewable energy sources, such as wind turbines, coupled with record sales in home appliances and consumer goods, is expected to boost demand for stainless steel. ERG anticipates a 4.8% growth in demand in 2025, which will significantly benefit the ferrochrome industry. The company said that an average 3% year-on-year growth in aluminium demand is expected in 2025, driven by the automotive industry's shift towards lightweight materials and the increasing adoption of renewable energy technologies. While the cobalt market is currently in surplus, the global electric vehicle (EV) sector is projected to continue its expansion, potentially representing over 60% of cobalt demand by 2030. This trend could lead to market deficits as demand for cobalt outpaces supply by the end of the decade. ERG emphasized the importance of future incentives for EVs and policies such as the European Green Deal in shaping the market landscape for 2025 and beyond. AI demand As AI becomes more mainstream, it is anticipated to boost metal demand substantively. According to Bloomberg commodities insights, data centers in North America alone could increase copper demand by 1.1-2.4 million tonnes as for 2030. ERG maintains a neutral-to-bullish outlook for key metals in 2025. However, this perspective is contingent upon macroeconomic trends, including the economic situation in China, potential trade protectionist measures, and US monetary policy. The company noted that while the pace and consistency of economic recovery may be uneven, but the long-term fundamentals for metals and minerals in ERG's portfolio remain promising.China's role The International Monetary Fund forecasts China's GDP to grow by 4.6% in 2025, while Kazakhstan's GDP is expected to increase by 5.5%. These developments are significant, considering China's substantial investments in clean energy, which exceeded US$890 billion in 2023. 'GDP of Switzerland, where the annual World Economic Forum Davos meeting is taking place, is around US$800 billion,' Andrey Belov, head of PR & communications at ERG said on LinkedIn. 'China's investments in clean energy are more than US$890 billion (2023).' Such investments are likely to drive demand for metals like copper and aluminium. In September 2024, ERG secured a $150 million pre-export finance deal with Glencore International AG and the London Branch of Bank of China Limited. The agreement is supported by a supply arrangement for copper cathodes from ERG's Metalkol facility in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Less bullish on steel Despite ERG's somewhat optimistic outlook, the metals industry is not short of its challenges. Analysts have observed a decline in China's commodities supercycle, which had driven metal prices for two decades. In 2024, China's crude steel production was 1,005 million tons, down 1.7% compared to 2023, GMK Centre reported. According to Reuters, this is the lowest figure in five years. This could indicate that China's economy will require new drivers beyond the property sector, as current stimulus measures have not spurred a new wave of construction to boost steel

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