The article warns of a looming security crisis in Europe due to the combined threat of a rising Russia and a potentially less engaged United States under Donald Trump. It emphasizes the urgent need for Europe to bolster its defenses, particularly Germany's increased military spending.
A security crisis is brewing in Europe . Two dangerous elements could combine in 2025. A growing threat from Russia and increasing indifference from Donald Trump’s America. Europe an countries urgently need to respond to this alarming geopolitical combination by building up their own defences. For that to happen, it is crucial for Germany, Europe ’s largest economy, to finally make good on Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s promise of a dramatic rise in defence spending.
Making the political case for increased defence spending requires clarity about what is going on in both Russia and America. Mark Rutte, Nato’s recently appointed secretary-general, warned last month that: “Russia’s economy is on a war footing . . . Danger is moving towards us at full speed.” He urged Nato to rapidly increase defence production and “shift to a wartime mindset”. Last April, General Christopher Cavoli, Nato’s supreme commander in Europe, cautioned that: “Russia shows no sign of stopping. Nor does Russia intend to stop with Ukraine.” Western analysts argue that Russia is already engaged in a hybrid war with Europe — involving regular acts of sabotage that risk mass casualties. During the cold war, the US led the allied response when Russia dialled up the military pressure in Europe. But the American reaction this time promises to be very different. President-elect Trump’s key appointments include advisers who are explicit about their desire to redeploy American military assets from Europe to Asia. Elbridge Colby, who has just been nominated as under secretary of defence for policy, wrote in the FT last year that China is a much higher priority for the US than Russia and argued that the “US must withhold forces from Europe that are needed for Asia, even in the event of Russia attacking first”. European defence analysts worry that a US military pullback from Europe would encourage Russian aggressio
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