Key factors such as the war in Ukraine, inflation, and the energy transition will continue to shape the industry through 2023.
- Jan 30, 2023, 4:00 PM CST
As always, I try to strike a balance between realistic predictions, and those that are too obvious. I consider the discussion behind the predictions to be more important than the predictions themselves. That’s why I provide extensive background and reasoning behind all predictions. It provides additional context, and often gives potential scenarios that could cause events to go in a different direction than expected.
As I write this, the price of WTI is $82.03/bbl, and it has been slowly rising over the past month. The futures prices for oil this year trend slightly down over the year, and are presently at $79.13/bbl for December 2023. Thus, the market isn’t currently expecting significant disruptions this year. Then again, it never is. Prices ultimately surged far above where futures prices were in January in each of the past two years.
If we look at the pattern in 2019, that year started off at 11.9 million BPD, ahead of the current pace. Oil prices were in the low $50s then, well short of where they are now. That would argue that a new oil production record is in reach for this year.
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