Study projects a sharp increase in extreme temperature-related deaths in the U.S. by 2065, with older adults and minority populations facing the highest risk. Rising GHG emissions are identified as a key factor driving this trend.
By Dr. Chinta SidharthanReviewed by Benedette Cuffari, M.Sc.Sep 26 2024 As global temperatures rise, the U.S. faces a surge in heat-related deaths by mid-century, with older adults and ethnic minorities most at risk. Without swift climate action, the death toll could more than double.
How does extreme weather affect human health? The exponential increase in GHG emissions due to human actions has led to extreme heat events in the U.S. that are expected to rise in the near future, whereas extreme cold events are reducing in frequency. Understanding the impact of these changes and shifts in population demographics on temperature-associated mortality is essential for shaping public health and climate change policies.
Given the aging population and warming climate, more areas in the U.S. are expected to experience extreme heat for longer periods and have an increased burden of temperature-related mortality. A dataset that used 20 global climate models to simulate future temperatures was used for projected temperature data between 2035 and 2065. Under two different scenarios, the researchers estimated the projected burden of extreme temperature-associated deaths. In the first scenario, GHG emissions were reduced to moderate levels due to climate change policies, whereas continued fossil fuel use led to high emissions in the second scenario.
Study findings Between 2008 and 2019, the annual average number of days in which temperatures were extremely high was 13.3, whereas the annual mean number of cold days was 8.2. The projections for the next few decades into the mid-21st century suggested a significant increase in temperatures, with an average of 40.7 extreme heat days every year if the GHG emissions were moderate.
The baseline period data estimated 30.9 million deaths due to extreme temperatures, with mortality rates for men and women equivalent. However, mortality rates varied based on race and ethnicity, with individuals who were non-Hispanic White most affected, followed by individuals of non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic races.
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