We calculate the expansion will add 13 minutes to the average Londoner's life expectancy in 2023.
University of the West of England and Erasmus University Rotterdam found “statistically significant” reductions
We put it to TfL that this meant the evidence supporting the latest expansion of ULEZ was much weaker than it was for the early phases. TfL told FactCheck that it was important to consider how the policy will affect theFor example, a 5.4 per cent reduction in NOx emissions doesn’t sound like much compared to the 35 per cent fall attributed to the central London ULEZ. But because outer London is so big, it works out at a larger reduction in absolute terms .
The mayor’s impact assessment estimates that expanding ULEZ to outer London will cut the number of hospital admissions caused by air pollution by 26 this year. Of course, any reduction in hospital admissions is a good thing – but it works out at only 1.2 per cent fewer admissions than we would have seen had ULEZ not been expanded.
Responding to this point, the mayor’s office noted that the same report says the expanded ULEZ “would continue to deliver air quality and health benefits for a number of years beyond 2023”, but that these haven’t been modelled in the research. In other words, there could be more life expectancy gains in future years, but they haven’t calculated what those might be.
They added: “The ULEZ expansion is part of a wider package of bold measures we are taking to clean up the air across London, from electrifying our bus fleet, to delivering the Superloop to outer London, to more electric taxis, to installing electric vehicle chargers.”It’s not the primary goal of ULEZ expansion but reducing greenhouse gases is second on the list of policy objectives in the mayor’s impact assessment.
According to the mayor’s own impact assessment, widening ULEZ to outer London will only have “minor” and “negligible” benefits in terms of nitrogen dioxide and carbon particulates exposure, which are two key measures of air quality.
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