Mike Clay discusses how he likes to approach the draft, waivers and trades and the climate at the key fantasy positions.
season is upon us, and if you tuned out after February's Super Bowl, you certainly have a lot of catching up to do.
It has taken some time, but wide receiver has officially overtaken running back as the priority position.Five years ago , 10 of the first 12 picks were running backs. That trend has shifted in recent years, and 2024 ADP data shows the considerable change: Only four of the first 12 picks are RBs. What do I think? I think that it depends on whom you're drafting with and how your draft is progressing. That's a bit of a cop-out, but it also follows suit with my general drafting strategy of never allowing biases, emotion or need stand in the way of maximizing value.
Those eight quarterbacks comprise what I'd consider to be the first two to three tiers of quarterbacks. But even if you miss out on them, the likes of The question is, can we still count on these veterans who have proved elite/reliable the past half-decade and remain positioned for big workloads, or should we fade them in anticipation of a mass exodus from standout production and instead lean into youth? Hall and Robinson are viable alternatives to McCaffrey at Pick 1.1, but passing on the legend that is CMC is a bold move.
One thing you do need to watch out for, though, is the RB"dead zone" that has been a popular point of discussion in the industry in recent years. Once the top group of backs are off the board it becomes hard to add value to your team by drafting running backs because of the severe drop-off in talent/situation and because you're passing on reliable, star players at other positions, especially wide receiver.
Though we have a ton of good options, ordering the receivers does start to get a bit tricky around this area of the draft. AreThere are a lot of tough questions in that paragraph, and that's only a partial list of players you'll be considering in the early-to-middle rounds.
We saw an example of this last season, as this same article warned you to avoid any posthype attraction to 2022 Day 1-2 WRs who busted as rookies.were all outside the top 90 as rookies, and the best finish by the group in 2023 was Robinson's 53rd . comprise the list of 2023 Day 1-2 receivers who finished their rookie season 90th or worse in fantasy points . History tells us that, while maybe one of these guys makes a leap, it's unlikely, so we shouldn't invest much in them.
An example of this came in the 14-team 2021 FSGA Champions league. I picked 11th and opened with Travis Kelce. I took a back at 18th overall . That was a long time to wait for a second back in a 14-team league, but I couldn't pass on that WR value. The next four picks after I took Evans were Chris Carson,. . The next RB picks after Woods -- who was a fringe WR1 before his injury that season -- were Denver committee backs. Ouch.
In fact, that reminds me of the infamous 2007 season in my long-running 16-team, family and friends dynasty league. With zero fantasy football acumen and onlyand Miami Hurricanes fandom at his disposal , my 13-year-old brother Matthew drafted Patriots Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Wes Welker andand Kellen Winslow II. So, yeah, the top-scoring QB, WR and K, as well as the WR11 and top-five finishers at RB and TE. Matt never checked his team and still started 9-0.
Quarterbacks are extremely valuable and hard to acquire in 12-plus team superflex formats , so having an arsenal like this is massively advantageous. I was content hanging onto all five QBs into the season, but I constantly explored trade possibilities during and after our rookie draft with the hopes of adding one more star to my starting lineup.
Trading in fantasy is one of the most polarizing aspects of the game, as most managers seem to either be extremely aggressive or extremely quiet in the department. If you've been playing against the same leaguemates for a long time, I imagine you could place each of them in one of the two categories within seconds of contemplation. Understanding the philosophies, tendencies, skill levels, etc. of your leaguemates is an edge you can use when evaluating the trade market.
1. When making an offer, don't just consider what the other manager can do for you. Look closely at their roster and see if there is a void you can fill. Why? Because if I don't, I'm putting myself at a disadvantage. Every single week, there is at least a player or two on waivers who is well worth adding to your roster, if not your starting lineup . And that goes for the weeks leading up to the season, as well.Elevate your league's draft party experience with our ESPN Draft Board Kits. Use code FOCUS10 for 10% off your order., including Kyren Williams , LaPorta , Nacua , Raheem Mostert , C.J. Stroud and De'Von Achane .
A lot of what I just laid out will apply to most of you, but I realize leagues come in all shapes and sizes. In fact, I know this better than most, as none of the 12 teams I managed in 2023 are exactly the same, with a steady mix of season-long, dynasty, keeper, IDP, super-deep lineups and/or very creative scoring. One of my past leagues even had punters and head coaches !
You can and should take advantage of this, and one way to do that in a startup draft is to go extremely young at the expense of winning in the short term. That might seem counterintuitive to what I just said, but bear with me. Aim for 20- to 24-year-old players and do your best to fade everyone else. Not everyone you pick will pan out, but enough will, and within a year or two your roster should be peaking while the managers who drafted depreciating assets will be fading.
The best advice in these scenarios is to consider ADP. A realistic question I get is something like,"Should I keep Garrett Wilson for a second-round pick or Nico Collins for a 13th-round pick?" Most agree Wilson is the better asset, but both players have an ADP in the second round. In this scenario, you keep Collins and you'll still get a player similar to Wilson when you're on the clock in the second round.
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