Pollsters say right-wing party will win three seats at best. Tice warns of 'seismic' anger if Tories get fewer votes but 70 to 100 more seats
Pollsters say right-wing party will win three seats at best. Tice warns of 'seismic' anger if Tories get fewer votes but 70 to 100 more seats
“In place of hard data, however, we can speculate with some accuracy based on demographics and historical precedent. Tice may like to push out the message that Reform could see his party overtake the Tories in the national polls – or as the pollsters like to say reaching crossover – but he’s under no illusion that the first past the post system will allow his party to win more seats than his rivals on the right of the political spectrum.
Vasil Lazarov, a data analyst at Survation, says that Reform were not leading in any constituency at the time of the company’s last poll. But that was conducted before Farage launched himself on the Brexit stronghold of Clacton-on-Sea in Essex. Two of those three seats were, however, different to those suggested by other pollsters. It found that Reform had a one in four chance of winning Gainsborough – the town Tory grandee Sir Edward Leigh has represented since 1983, and has the same chance in North West Norfolk. It also suggested that Reform had a one in five chance of winning Clacton, in the poll which did not take Farage’s candidacy into account.
“We estimate that there are 25 seats where Reform’s performance will cost the Tories their seat. Many of these are in ‘Blue Wall’ type seats with a close Tory/Labour race, where Conservatives losing votes to Reform will cost them the result.” “The next release of MRP data will only contain data collected after he entered the race and will also contain information from candidates lists,” adds Farmer. “Once we have the candidate lists, our MRP model will better pick up on the influence of particular local candidates in a race.
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