Minutes from the November FOMC noted increased uncertainty in judging the US economic situation
The minutes from the Fed’s November meeting confirm its commitment to a flexible path forward and one that remains tied to the economic data. There was little mention of the election of Donald Trump or any consideration of potential policies that might result from his victory. We still think the Fed will go ahead with another quarter-point cut in December followed by two more quarter-point cuts in 2025, in line with the more gradual stance.
The participants added that the run-up in bond yields leading up to the meeting was a function of better economic data and communications that suggested a more gradual path of rate cuts was appropriate. “Many participants observed that uncertainties concerning the level of the neutral rate of interest complicated the assessment of the degree of restrictiveness of monetary policy and, in their view, made it appropriate to reduce policy restraint gradually.
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