Read the Federal Reserve’s October forecast from the FT’s MPR team
Over the past month, by far the most significant economic development in the US was Donald Trump’s presidential election victory, which was accompanied by a Republican sweep of both chambers of Congress. Trump’s economic wish list combines sweeping tax cuts, dramatically higher tariffs on imports, and significant restrictions on immigration. If enacted, all these would be inflationary.
Although the vast majority of his cabinet are unlikely to be confirmed by this point, the FOMC will have much more information about how aggressively Trump intends to pursue his campaign promises, as well as what his priorities are likely to be. The Fed could hold rates in December and January if additional inflation figures come in much higher than expected over the next few months. Conversely, it could cut at both meetings if successive labour market and inflation figures come in very weak.
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