Elon Musk continues to insist that Tesla's robotaxis will make the company's future success secure. Will It actually come to pass?
Following discussions with the Tesla investor relations team, JPMorgan analysts earlier this month said they soon expected Tesla to reveal a robotaxi prototype. The investment firm also offered the caveat that Tesla’s robotaxis and their associated revenues could be years away.to that of an autonomous vehicle company? Several analysts doubt that Tesla can make such a substantive shift.
ARK analysts, led by Tasha Keeney, put out a report on June 12 detailing their latest bullish predictions for Tesla. The authors argue that Tesla will skyrocket nearly 1350% by 2029 — and robotaxis are the optimist thesis. Tesla’s electric vehicle business is expected to generate about a quarter of total sales in 2029 but only about 10% of Tesla’s earnings. Tesla’s stock is currently the largest holding of the Ark Innovation exchange-traded fund ARKK.
An ARK Invest report from February 2024 concurred, reinforcing the idea that they see robotaxis “transforming global transport with point-to-point transportation to be available in nearly every country at an average price of ~$.50 per mile.” They project that robotaxis will have traveled 13 trillion vehicle miles by the late 2030s.Tesla’s free cash flow is expected to hit $14.6 billion in 2029 with just $12 billion in capex spending.
Carolyn Fortuna, PhD, is a writer, researcher, and educator with a lifelong dedication to ecojustice. Carolyn has won awards from the Anti-Defamation League, The International Literacy Association, and The Leavey Foundation. Carolyn is a small-time investor in Tesla and an owner of a 2022 Tesla Model Y as well as a 2017 Chevy Bolt. Please follow Carolyn on Substack: https://carolynfortuna.substack.com/.
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