One bookmaker now puts odds on Farage succeeding Sir Keir Starmer
It’s hard to imagine the pint-swilling, fag-toting Nigel Farage as a fierce Viking invader jumping from a longship, sword in hand.. “Reform UK’s voting base is largely along England’s east coast, especially Lincolnshire and East Anglia, as well as in neighbouring counties such as Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire.”
At these set of local elections the Conservatives are defending a high watermark of seats won in a polling bounce after the Covid vaccine was rolled out in 2021. Then Reform stood in just 118 wards.“Reform is like a tidal wave that’s coming in. The Tories are standing on the on the beach, and we’re in huts bit further back. But if we’re not careful, the water is going to come for all of us,” the Labour MP said.
In December, Reform rolled out a series of defections, designed to show momentum. So far none of the names they have won over have been a killer blow to the Tories or Labour. Reform is also taking electoral lessons from Trump’s US victory. While immigration is still its central policy platform the party is also taking notes on contesting green policies in favour of economic growth.
One is the first-past-the-post electoral system. Reform finds itself in an odd alliance with the Liberal Democrats – all bungee jumps and Ed Davey’s cuddly Christmas single – in that both parties would do much better under a proportional representation system.According to Ansell’s modelling, even a 10-point swing towards Reform in every single constituency would still leave Farage far from power with 99 seats to Badenoch’s 233 and Starmer’s 199 at a general election.
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