The 2024 presidential race has been frozen in place, but a few opportunities remain to shake it up.
Barring some unpredictable external event, like a foreign policy crisis or natural disaster, or a health event for one of the elderly major party candidates, a few opportunities remain to shake up the race.— he will turn 82 shortly after the election and would be 86 by the end of a second term — andThis is an early debate, before either candidate is their party’s nominee. That could help the loser minimize the electoral consequences of a poor performance.
On the Democratic side, there are fears of protests and even violence. Progressive activists remain angry over Biden’s relative support for Israel in its war against Hamas in Gaza. Some call him “Genocide Joe.” Anti-war demonstrations and fights with police at the 1968 Democratic convention helped elect Richard Nixon by symbolizing a country in chaos. Post-9/11 conventions are much more difficult for protesters to penetrate, but the real action might be outside the convention hall.
Trump’s multiple indictments helped him in the Republican primaries and had little impact on the general election polling. The same was true of the E. Jean Carroll and New York civil fraud verdicts. Trump’s hush money conviction appears to have been followed by a modest dip in the polls — he leads by 0.8 points nationally in thepolling average — partially offset by increased Republican intensity and a boost in fundraising.
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