Can campaign donations predict electoral outcomes?
Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskAt first glance, this suggests that campaign donations fail to predict electoral outcomes. Most studies show that, in general elections for federal offices, money buys few votes directly: once the airwaves are saturated with ads, further spots make little difference. But in the past, data on some contributions—those by individuals, which are limited to $2,900 per candidate-donor pair—have offered precious insight.
Any weakening of this pattern could explain Democratic Senate candidates’ losses in 2020. In recent years, political-donation websites like ActBlue and WinRed have nationalised campaign finance. In 2020 out-of-state donors accounted for 68% of contributions by individuals, up from 31% in 2012. Such benefactors may never have heard of the recipients of their gifts, and are not eligible to vote for them.
Most incumbents out-raise their opponents. So do Democrats running in liberal states, and Republicans in conservative ones. Using these trends, we calculated the expected shares of votes and individual donations in each Senate race since 2008. For example, a Republican facing a Democratic incumbent in Florida in 2018 should get 20% of contributions and 46% of votes.
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