Early opinion polls suggest Labour is on course to take Shrewsbury in next month’s general election – but is unlikely to make significant inroads in the North or South Shropshire constituencies.
Modelling released by YouGov this week suggests that nationally Labour is on course for a landslide win ahead of the country taking to the polls on July 4, with Julia Buckley rated as “likely” to become Shrewsbury’s first Labour MP since 2005.
The MRP poll by pollsters YouGov is a sophisticated modelling technique using factors such as gender, age, past voting record, and occupation in order to calculate win probabilities in individual seats. Elsewhere, North Shropshire is rated as a “likely Lib Dem” seat, with the polling company predicting that Helen Morgan would hold on to her seat ahead of Conservative rival Simon Baynes with a reduced majority compared to her 2021 by-election success over Neil Shastri-Hurst.
Nationally the data modelling suggests that Keir Starmer’s Labour Party could win a historic majority of 194 seats, which would surpass the majority of 179 seats that Tony Blair achieved in 1997.
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