Goldman Sachs economists upped the probability of the U.S. economy entering a recession in the next year to 25%, though they noted they still see 'recession risk as limited.'
Economists at Goldman Sachs raised the likelihood of the U.S. economy slipping into a recession within the next 12 months from 15% to 25% while continuing to view the risk of recession as limited, according to a report. Goldman economists led by Jan Hatzius, the firm's chief economist and head of global investment research, wrote that they "continue to see recession risk as limited" in a report to clients on Sunday that was reviewed by Bloomberg. They said the U.S.
25% percentage points, though they noted that if the August jobs report is as sluggish as July's, they could opt for a larger cut. "The premise of our forecast is that job growth will recover in August and the FOMC will judge 25bp cuts a sufficient response to any downside risks," the Goldman economists wrote. "If we are wrong and the August employment report is as weak as the July report, then a 50bp cut would be likely in September.
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