Goldman Sachs sees energy netting returns of 31% over the next 12 months, with commodities expected to gain as a hedge against supply risks threatened by geopolitical developments such as the Hamas-Israel war
. Goldman is forecasting 21% returns on commodities overall for the prior as spot prices rise, monetary policy becomes less hawkish, and recession fears subside somewhat. The biggest gainers will be energy and industrial metals, the investment bank said in a note. Goldman expects 17.8% returns for industrial metals, with copper and aluminum stocks tightening, leading to a rise in prices in the second half of next year.
The investment bank referred to demand as having “ongoing resilience” enabling it to bolster oil prices, Reuters reported. While Goldman Sachs sees interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve coming to an end, citing core disinflation, with rate reductions coming only in the fourth-quarter of next year, Morgan Stanley disagrees, forecasting that the Fed will make deep interest rate cuts over the next two years as inflation cools.
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