Our modelling finds that high energy prices are linked to more winter deaths. How many deaths are likely to be prevented by the planned support from European governments?
, European governments are finalising support measures for households and businesses struggling to pay for energy. Consumer gas and electricity prices are at record highs, respectively 177% and 94% more than they were just two years ago. This is largely due to supply restrictions related to Russia’s war in Ukraine. Governments hope that subsidies will not only keep business afloat, but also keep citizens warm—and alive.
Energy prices began creeping up in September 2021, when demand increased as covid lockdown measures eased and economic activity picked up. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 then sent them soaring. EU member states have pledged a total of more than €600bn to help people and businesses pay their electricity and heating bills. The biggest spender by far is Germany, which relies on Russian gas.
Across Europe the methods of support differ, as do the amounts. But most countries have cut prices for everyone. All but three have reduced taxes or VAT on energy; most have set some form of price cap for consumers. To assess how many lives these measures could save, we used data on what electricity prices are expected to be with government-support measures and what they would be without them in 19 EU countries. These are collected by VaasaETT, an energy consultancy.
Even with government interventions, prices this year are far higher than they were from 2000 to 2019. This is the period our model used to determine the relationship between energy prices and deaths. It is impossible to know whether the relationship remains the same now. Assuming it does, we estimate that price cushions on residential retail electricity in our set of 19 countries will reduce energy prices by around 22% on average, and cost around €140bn between October 2022 and April 2023.
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