Even if it wins a vote of no-confidence, his pension plan is deeply unpopular
his parliamentary majority at legislative elections in June 2022, it was always going to make his second term as French president more difficult. Quite how much so was revealed on March 16th. Despite frantic last-minute efforts, his government failed to secure the votes needed to pass athrough normal parliamentary procedure. Instead, it activated an article of the constitution, 49.3, which enables it to force the reform through without a vote—but at the risk of provoking a political crisis.
The use of article 49.3 is unusual, but not unprecedented. Under Michel Rocard, a Socialist prime minister who also ran a minority government from 1988 to 1991, it was used 28 times. This provision allows the government to force through legislation by putting its own survival on the line. Opposition parties now have 24 hours to table a no-confidence motion, which could topple the government. Ms Le Pen has already said that she will do so.
Given the rival factions in opposition to Mr Macron’s party, however, it may be difficult for any political group to back the other’s motion. The Republicans’ leader, Eric Ciotti, says that he will neither table his own, nor vote down the government. Others within his party may think differently. A vote is due to be held in the next few days, most probably on March 20th. Unless a cross-party motion finds favour, the government could survive—technically.
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