For all the attention being paid to the speech, the chances of it containing any new news seem remote.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will deliver his policy speech at 10 a.m. ET from the central bank's annual conclave in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
For all the attention being paid to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's policy speech Friday, the chances of it containing any startling news seem remote.: The Fed is going to start cutting rates in September — and likely will keep cutting through the end of the year and into 2025. The speech will be delivered at 10 a.m. ET from the Fed's annual conclave of global central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The conference is titled"Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy" and runs through Saturday.
A half-point move likely would require a substantial deterioration in economic data between now and then, and specifically another weak nonfarm payrolls report in two weeks. At his first appearance, in 2018, he outlined his views on the interest and unemployment rates considered"neutral" or stable. A year later, he indicated rate cuts were coming. In a speech delivered amid racial protests in 2020, Powell unveiled a new approach that would allow inflation to run hotter than usual, without rate hikes, in the interest of promoting a more inclusive jobs market.
"We expect Powell to express a bit more confidence in the inflation outlook and to put a bit more emphasis on downside risks in the labor market than in his press conference after the July FOMC meeting, in light of the data released since then," Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle said in a recent note.
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