Market expectations still eye a potential rate hike from the Bank of Japan as soon as April and fully price one in by June. This is despite Japan dropping into recession
Wage negotiations are currently underway, with the process supposedly coming to an end in mid-March. This forms the basis of why markets are looking ahead to the April meeting for that all important hike.The latest CoT data reveals an accumulation of yen short positions which goes against the warnings communicated last week by Japan’s top currency official Kanda and the Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Shun’ichi Suzuki.
If bulls are able to move prices towards 146.50 – this could potentially draw the attention from the finance ministry, leading to an enquiry of FX quotes from banks. This has been the case in the past, right before selling dollars and buying yen in large quantities. Support is at 146.50 while resistance appears at the recent swing high of 150.88 followed by 146.50.
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