Makerfield is historically among the safest Labour seats in the country, but the local elections were bruising for the party. Could Burnham win?
It used to be as red as you can get. One of the party's traditional heartlands, the constituency of Makerfield has returned a Labour MP with clockwork-like consistency in the four decades it has existed.
But cracks in Labour's grip on this corner of Wigan have started to appear. And Andy Burnham could face the fight of his political life should he stand in a by-election for what was once considered one of the safest seats in the UK.
Click here to get the biggest stories straight to your inbox in our Daily Newsletter Today , the Greater Manchester mayor confirmed he will seek permission from Labour’s ruling NEC to stand in the contest, which has been triggered by MP Josh Simons' resignation . While Makerfield has been Labour-held since the constituency was created in 1983, recent election results suggest the political landscape is shifting.
And that shift, looking at votes in the May 7 local elections, Andy Burnham would need a swing of over 12 per cent from Reform UK to win the seat, and set up his charge for the leadership of the Labour Party - and the job of Prime Minister. Simons won the Makerfield seat in the 2024 general election with 18,202 votes and a majority of 5,399.
Labour secured 45 per cent of the vote, ahead of Reform UK on 32 per cent. It was only the second time the Nigel Farage-led Reform UK had challenged for the seat, but its popularity had already far outstripped the Tories. The Conservatives finished third on 11 per cent, while the Liberal Democrats took seven per cent and the Greens four per cent.
The constituency, which was formed from parts of predecessors in Ince, Wigan , and Leigh , was represented for decades by former Cabinet minister Sir Ian McCartney. His tenure saw it considered one of the safest Labour seats in the country.
However, last week's local elections painted a far more troubling picture for Labour. In the early hours of May 8, in a bruising night for the party across Wigan borough, it was announced Reform UK won 24 out of the 25 council seats being contested. Long-standing Labour strongholds fell one after another, including Ince - an area seen for decades as symbolic of Labour dominance in Wigan politics.
Across the eight council wards which make up the Makerfield constituency, Reform secured more than half of all votes cast. Makerfield is principally made up of eight wards: Abram; Ashton-in-Makerfield South; Bryn with Ashton-in-Makerfield North; Hindley; Hindley Green; Orrell; Winstanley; Worsley Mesnes, plus small areas of three neighbouring wards. Every one of the eight wards was won by Reform UK in the local elections last week.
Adding up all the votes in those wards together, Reform UK polled a total of 16,032 votes. It was enough to secure a notional majority of 7,738 votes over Labour, which polled a total of 8,294 votes in the eight wards. And comparing last week's vote and the 2024 general election, Labour lost 10,000 votes in Makerfield. Those results mean Andy Burnham would need a swing of 12.22 per cent to win the seat back for Labour at a by-election.
Despite the difficult backdrop, Labour insiders believe Mr Burnham may be uniquely placed to take the seat because of his popularity across Greater Manchester. He has spent nearly a decade building a strong presence across the region as mayo - and party strategists believe this and strong local roots could help Labour reconnect with voters who have shifted towards other parties.
Whether voters agree may soon become clear in what is now shaping up to be one of the most closely watched by-elections in the country. Makerfield Result of 2024 General Election Labour 18,502 Reform UK 12,803 Conservative 4,379 Lib Dem 2.735 Green 1,776 Local election votes May 2026 Reform UK 16,032 Labour 8,294 Conservative 2,232 Lib Dem 1,164 Green 3,325 Other 627
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