The WSJ pointed out that the economist “hailed not from a big financial house,” but it was her vantage point in Texas that led to a win.
The first few years Belinda Román participated in the Wall Street Journal’s annual economic forecasting contest, there was no official winner.
For instance, Román’s forecast of 2.8% growth in the gross domestic product for 2023 — based on the inflation-adjusted change in the fourth quarter from a year earlier — was closest among economists to the 3.1% reported by the U.S. Department of Commerce in January.Her forecast for the 2023 economy overall trended more positive than some of her peers, expecting much stronger economic growth and job gains than the consensus.
Román grew up in El Paso and entered Texas Christian University as a pre-medical major with plans to be a physician like her father. “I found that I had more affinity with the social sciences and with economics,” she said.Román returned to TCU, got her master’s degree, then took a federal government job in El Paso working on border and immigration analyses.
After teaching economics at Palo Alto for 17 years, Román joined the faculty at St. Mary’s as an adjunct professor. Five years in, she became a full-time professor and has been at the university for about 13 years. Román teaches courses in microeconomics, macroeconomics, international economics, and sometimes special topics such as health care or labor. She also does some consulting to keep up her skills.
San Antonio, however, does not get the recognition the city deserves when it comes to economic forecasting at the national level. There’s economic growth in San Antonio and that’s what made Román’s forecast more bullish than perhaps others.
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