Measuring power is fraught with arbitrary judgments and subjectivity. But that has not stopped Chinese scholars from trying to compute Comprehensive National Power
In the 1980s Chinese scholars started by looking at the power equations drawn up in the West, but found them wanting. A formula devised by Ray Cline, aanalyst, was dismissed for being too narrow in scope and too subjective. Deng Xiaoping, China’s reformist leader, had stated: “In measuring a country’s national power, one must look at it comprehensively and from all sides.” To cater to these demands, Chinese experts started to design their own models.
They ran into some problems. One is that the more complete the range of variables, the harder it is to allocate weights to them. In a paper from 2002, Hu Angang and Men Honghua, then of Tsinghua University, listed eight categories of resources, taking in everything from farmland to computers.is calculated as a weighted average of these resources as a share of the world’s total. The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences has a similar model, but uses different indicators and weightings.
What’s more, effective power depends on the context. A country’s cultural exports can convey soft power, but they are of little use in a war. David Baldwin of Princeton University writes that assessing power without a context is like discussing what makes up a good hand without specifying the card game.on the head. Instead, it has spurred researchers to come up with their own, improved versions.has counted 69 of them. Not to be deterred, we have added to the pile.
A country cannot be powerful if its economy is inefficient. In the 19th century China lost two opium wars to Britain, despite having atwice the size. On the other hand, neither can a country be powerful if its economy is efficient but small. Luxembourg has not won many wars. And countries cannot fight without a decent army. In the Song dynasty the deadly Mongol cavalry outmatched even the finest Chinese infantry.
By our measure, China has been gaining on America, but the latter is still comfortably on top. Sun Tzu would predict peace for a good few years yet.
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