Since Russia invaded Ukraine two years ago, fears have risen in neighboring Moldova that it could also be in Moscow’s crosshairs
. Like Ukraine, Moldova is a former Soviet republic that has aligned itself with the West and aspires to join the European Union. And both countries hope to eventually reintegrate Russian-speaking breakaway territories that view Moscow as their protector. After a short war in the early 1990s, Transnistria declared independence from Moldova, where today’s pro-Western government has firmly opposed Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war with Ukraine.
Russian forces have made territorial gains in Ukraine in recent months after Kyiv’s counteroffensive failed to yield significant battlefield gains. But to reach Transnistria from Ukraine, Russian forces would need to capture Ukraine’s Black Sea coast, including the major port city of Odesa, to create a land corridor to the region. In an interview with The Associated Press, Moldova’s foreign minister, Mihai Popsoi, didn’t play down the threat that Russia poses to Moldova.
Moldova’s government asserts that Moscow is conducting a broad “hybrid war” against their country by funding anti-government protests, meddling in local elections, and running vast disinformation campaigns to try to topple the government and derail Moldova's EU aspirations.
Ion Marandici, a scholar who studies conflict resolution and Eastern Europe, said he's skeptical that Transnistria could be reintegrated into Moldova by 2030, when Moldova hopes to become a full EU member. 'The conflict can be managed successfully, but it cannot be resolved at this time due to the deep-seated distrust and the sacrifices that neither side is willing to make,” he said. “Reintegration would mean a weakening of pro-EU parties and a consolidation of their political opponents.
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