A cautiously optimistic survey of the context in which we are now living.
—a recurring feature in which we take the temperature of the presidential election and what seems likely to happen in November.
Democrats, having spent three weeks in a quagmire of deep-summer bickering about whether Joe Biden should step aside, are now experiencing a cool breeze of optimism. They’re, which means running ads about how a person who was let out of jail under her supervision went on to commit further crimes—a strategy that, according to conventional wisdom, contributed heavily to Michael Dukakis’ landslide loss in 1988.
Let’s cover the less fun stuff first. It’s true that Harris did enter the presidential race as a nominal underdog. The candidate she’s replacing—“Old” Joe Biden—was losing, and her ownagainst Trump nationally were not in the range that she’d probably need to win the Electoral College. narrowly in FiveThirtyEight’s tracker. Which is to say: Just being a generic, inoffensive Democrat might be an improvement over Biden, but it likely won’t be enough to win the election.
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