OPINION: The reduction in volatility in commodity markets and the deal making slowdown are weighing on Macquarie’s near-term profits. But its powerful model remains intact.
There’s something faintly ridiculous about the June-quarter trading update Macquarie provides each year on the day of its annual general meeting.
“weaker trading conditions” would mean earnings for the period would be “substantially down” on the prior yearUBS analyst John Storey says the group’s outlook implies earnings 15 per cent to 20 per cent below what the market expected for the period, and the stock fell 5 per cent on Thursday morning. The June quarter of last year, and indeed Macquarie’s entire 2023 financial year , was skewed by a bumper performance from Macquarie’s CGM division, which saw earnings surge by almost 40 per cent. The boss of that division,Don’t get carried away
The slowdown in deal activity that is weighing on Macquarie’s MAM division and MacCap should come as no surprise either, given the softer results from global giants such as Blackstone and Goldman Sachs we’ve seen out of the US in the last few weeks. Another global trend that appears to be touching Macquarie is the way investor caution is weighing on fundraising.
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