Vladimir Putin is taking desperate measures to avoid defeat on the battlefield. He risks dramatically undermining support for his regime
” to beef up his invasion force. This is causing widespread protests in Russia, and panic among young men who do not want to die for Mr Putin’s imperial dream. Many are trying to leave Russia. Queues at borders with Georgia, Kazakhstan and Mongolia stretched for several kilometres. The exodus could prove even larger than the onespoke to several men in St Petersburg about the prospect of conscription. “We have fallen into hell—that’s how I see it,” said one.
Announcing a national mobilisation is very unusual. The Kremlin last did it when Nazi Germany invaded the Soviet Union in 1941. It allows reservists to be called up to support the armed forces. Experts estimate that Russia has about 2m of those in total. The defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, says that 300,000 may be deployed during this “partial mobilisation”. However, parts of the mobilisation act are secret.an independent newspaper, reports that it in fact allows for 1m people to be enlisted.
Reports have emerged of men receiving conscription papers en masse, especially in poorer areas in the east and south of the country such as Chechnya and Dagestan. In Buryatia, an ethnic-Mongolian region in eastern Siberia, men were handed draft papers in the middle of the night, regardless of their experience or profession. According to Alexandra Garmazhapova of the Free Buryatia Foundation, an anti-war group, people were drafted within minutes of Mr Putin’s speech.
However, it is unlikely that the government can actually round up 1m soldiers. A campaign last spring intended to draft 134,000 yielded just 89,000. Mr Putin has given his press gangs additional legal tools—refusing to be drafted is now a criminal offence. But it is far from clear that he has the means to compel 1m men to fight against their will. If he can call up hundreds of thousands, that would surely help his war effort in the medium term.
Mr Putin’s strategy smacks of desperation. It is wildly unpopular among Russians, who previously tolerated his war on the understanding that it would not affect their lives much. Before mobilisation was announced, an independent poll found that two-thirds of Russians were against it. Thus, in an effort to avoid defeat on the battlefield, Russia’s despot risks dramatically undermining support for his regime.
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