Over the longer term, with China determined to consolidate perceived gains around the Taiwan Strait, and America committed to push back, danger looms
Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskWith hindsight, that was the first in a succession of military showdowns over Taiwan that have defined Sino-American relations and had consequences for the world beyond. Seven decades later the fourth such crisis is unfolding, this time triggered by a visit to Taiwan from the speaker of America’s House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, on August 2nd and 3rd.
Where things go from here will partly depend on what America and its allies do to help Taiwan. America has shown restraint so far but has pledged to resume regular military operations in the area, including transits through the Taiwan Strait. It will probably provide more training and weapons to Taiwan. Some foresee a cycle of action and reaction, with increased risks of accidents and miscalculations.
China’s concerns intensified after 2016 as the Trump administration expanded high-level official visits and arms sales to the island—including offensive weapons. To China’s frustration, Mr Biden has broadly continued that approach. He has also publicly suggested three times that America would directly defend Taiwan. Last year, he said that Taiwan was independent. His aides walked back all those comments. Chinese officials seethed nonetheless.
In the first days of the crisis in July 1995, China fired just six missiles, one of which malfunctioned. On August 4th that it fired 11, according to Taiwan’s ministry of defence. Japan said that five landed within its exclusive economic zone . Of those, four were believed to have flown over Taiwan. In another first, dozens of Chinese military aircraft and ships crossed the Taiwan Strait’s median line on consecutive days in a simulated air and sea attack.
Still, the latest drills served as a warning that China has many ways, short of invasion, to harm Taiwan, especially via a blockade. The exercises covered the approaches to three of Taiwan’s most important ports and the airspace that planes use to descend to Taiwanese airports. They “are tantamount to an air and sea blockade”, complained a Taiwanese general.
China’s next moves will probably depend, in part, on how America and Taiwan respond. If it believes they will continue to challenge its red lines , it may well increase pressure on them, says Bonnie Glaser of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, a think-tank. “In the meantime, thewill have learned many lessons from their military drills,” she says, predicting more of the same kind of exercises.
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