The new poll sought to reach voters who don’t usually participate in election surveys.
People enter a polling place to cast their votes in Georgia's Fulton County in 2020. Who are the voters that will decide the 2024 presidential election and what do they think about the candidates and issues facing the country?was designed to answer by surveying a random sample of more than 3,500 registered voters in six states. Biden narrowly won all six states in 2020, while Trump narrowly won five of them in 2016.
Polls have faced growing challenges in recent years, including declining response rates, differential participation by Republicans and Democrats, overrepresentation of highly-engaged voters and difficulties obtaining reliable samples of young voters. The poll, conducted by The Washington Post and Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University, sought to address these challenges and to reach voters who don’t usually participate in election polls, with the help of SSRS, the research firm that carried out the survey.To encourage participation, SSRS mailed every sampled voter a one-dollar bill with their survey invitation and offered another $10 if they completed the survey, a common method to boost response rates in surveys.
To mitigate nonresponse bias — which happens when people with different opinions respond to surveys at systematically different rates — SSRS tracked voter participation by partisanship based on party registration, past primary turnout and other predictors of party affiliation.
The Post and Schar School plan to continue interviewing Decider voters in key states to see how opinions change through the campaign.
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