Some analysts are warning that this could be a sign that the war is entering a more dangerous phase.
, how would Russian behavior—a rapid withdrawal and even leaving key equipment behind—be different? The answer: It would not be.to self-deter and to limit deliveries of the weaponry that Ukrainian forces needed in the first weeks of the war.
They may believe that satellite photographs, signals intelligence, and human intelligence will provide a clear picture. The nature of intelligence, however, is that there is always doubt and deception. Just as late Al Qaeda leader Usama Bin Laden used old-fashioned messengers rather than email or cell phones, so too might some core Russian commanders.
Putin might count on proponents fearful of any robust reaction to resurrect the post-chemical redline arguments in the aftermath of a tactical nuclear strike. It is for this reason that the White House and NATO should make clear upfront that this will not work. They should detail the pain Russia will suffer should withdrawal be a feint ahead of tactical nuclear use against Ukrainian forces and cities.
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