Traders expect a damp squib; they could get dynamite instead
Russia invaded Ukraine in February, America’s energy policy has pursued two grand, seemingly contradictory aims. The first is to keep global oil supply high enough that prices remain tolerable and public support for sanctions stays strong. The second is to asphyxiate Vladimir Putin’s war machine by stemming the flow of dollars Russia earns by flogging oil barrels.
In an optimistic scenario the package of sanctions could manage to reconcile the West’s two contradictory aims. The embargo would ensure Europe no longer fuels Mr Putin’s war: last month the bloc still bought 2.4m b/d of crude and refined products from Russia. Meanwhile the price cap, says an official within America’s Treasury department, would act as a “release valve”, keeping the global market in balance by letting developing countries buy Russian oil at a discount.
Start with the tankers. Cyprus, Greece and Malta loom so large in shipping that Europe’s ban on the provision of maritime services to countries that do not sign up to the cap—and many of them, loth to endorse American interference in commodity markets, have signalled they won’t—could create a big shortage of ships capable of carrying Russian crude.
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