The International Energy Agency (IEA) highlights the potential for global oil flow disruptions caused by new U.S. sanctions targeting Russia's oil industry and exports. Despite concerns about declining supply from Russia and Iran, the IEA predicts a surplus in the global oil market for 2025, driven by robust supply growth.
The International Energy Agency ( IEA ) warned on Wednesday that new expansive U.S. sanctions on the Russia n oil industry and exports could disrupt global oil flows, creating logistical challenges for producers who rely on shadow fleets, such as Russia , Iran , and Venezuela. Despite the potential for declining supply from Russia and Iran , the IEA predicts that the global oil market will likely remain in surplus this year due to supply continuing to outpace demand.
The agency anticipates a global oil demand growth of about 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 compared to 2024. This expected growth of 1.05 million bpd would represent an acceleration from the estimated 940,000 bpd growth in 2024, driven by a slightly improved economic outlook, according to the IEA. Global supply, on the other hand, is projected to increase by 1.8 million bpd in 2025 to reach 104.7 million bpd. Non-OPEC production is anticipated to rise by 1.5 million bpd in 2025, led by the United States, Brazil, Guyana, Canada, and Argentina. While the expanded sanctions on Russia are expected to further complicate oil trade logistics, exports on non-shadow tankers remain feasible for Russian oil purchased below the price cap of $60 per barrel, the IEA noted. Furthermore, the latest U.S. sanctions on Iran's shadow fleet, implemented in December, now encompass vessels that transported an average of over 500 kb/d of Iranian crude in 2024, representing nearly one-third of the country's crude exports, the agency stated. Although it is too early to fully assess the potential impact of these new measures, some operators have reportedly begun to withdraw from Iranian and Russian oil, it added. Despite the potential for further supply reductions from Russia and Iran, the market remains relatively unconcerned about a global supply shortage. The anticipated surge in non-OPEC production, coupled with OPEC members' intention to unwind extra voluntary production cuts, is expected to offset both potential supply disruptions and expected demand growth, according to the IEA
Oil Sanctions Russia Iran Global Oil Market Supply Demand IEA
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