🗣 'If Britain can send a new Prime Minister to stiffen spines and properly summon the spirit of Churchill, so much the better.'
In military parlance, it has been their ‘Main Effort’, consuming the lion’s share of materiel and manpower whilst killing, wounding and capturing large numbers of Ukrainians.It’s taken time and resources and been successful in a limited way, but there’s still a great chunk of heavily defended land to fall before the whole of the Donbas is under Moscow’s control.
Whilst Kiev may have used some creative accountancy over the number of fresh troops, there’s no doubt that new, longer range weapons are striking deep into Russian territory and that, despite 80 per cent of Kiev’s pre-war forces now having been destroyed, Ukrainian morale remains surprisingly high. But the Russians will have another view revolving, I suspect, around the G20 in Bali in mid-November. President Putin has already said that he intends to make a major speech there and it’s worth a punt on what’s going through his mind.
In parallel, the Kremlin will bank on EU/Nato unity being on the point of collapse as squabbles over energy supplies turn vicious. One of Russia’s strategic aims was the fracturing of Nato and although this seemed to have been dashed by the accession of Sweden and Finland, weaponised gas and oil supplies may do the job just as effectively as tanks, ships and missiles.The Kremlin will anticipate a drubbing for President Biden in America’s mid-term elections on November 8, just in time for the Bali get-together.
Yet they paid attention – and now’s our chance to send someone serious to back Mr Zelensky, someone of gravitas to whom President Putin will listen without a snigger.
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