Trump won in 2016 by appealing to conservative white Americans. This time, his advantage comes from Black and Latino voters.
Two weeks after Donald Trump’s conviction on multiple felonies related to the payment of hush money to a porn actress, we have a pretty good sense of the political impact: It has hurt him, but not much. In the average of public polls maintained by the FiveThirtyEight website, for example, Trump’s edge over President Biden has dropped by 0.8 percentage points since the jury verdict was announced.
What’s changed is that Trump gets 23% of Black voters, compared with only 7% whom he won in 2020, according to exit polls. The same holds true in recent polls of other competitive states. In Arizona, for example, a poll by Fox News conducted just after the verdict in the New York criminal case found Trump leading 51% to 46% — a result very similar to other recent surveys in the state.
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