Indonesia will never join Australia in trying to balance China. But we cannot succeed without paying heed to the broader strategic value of our huge northern neighbour, writes Herve Lemahieu.
– known as Jokowi – on his final trip as Indonesia’s president to Australia was well founded.
But as the Jokowi presidency enters its twilight, the search for depth in bilateral ties continues. Economic ties with our neighbour of 275 million people are anaemic. People-to-people links are underdone. And public attitudes in both democracies are largely indifferent to each other. A cold acknowledgement has set in on both sides of the Torres Strait that Indonesia will remain a hedger of China even as Australia becomes ever more the balancer.Indonesia is wary of China. But it does not view China as an existential threat. On balance, and despite standing up to Beijing in its territorial dispute over the Natuna Islands, Jakarta views US-China competition rather than Chinese unilateralism as the root of regional instability.
For one, it masks how Indonesia itself has changed under Jokowi. The country has historically fallen well short of its potential as a major power. But Jokowi – aided by his impressive foreign minister Retno Marsudi – has in recent years been a surprisingly activist leader on the global stage. Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto, a contender to replace Jokowi in 2024, has similarly played an unusually international role.
Jokowi notably held the G20 together in Bali last year by securing consensus on the “adverse effects” of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – a diplomatic coup, given rife divisions among the world’s most important economies. He also deserves credit for starting to defuse US-China tensions by facilitatingIndonesia, in other words, is not just relevant to Australia because it is proximate to us. It is relevant because it has growing global clout. It may not be the most aligned country for Australia.
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