Inflation data this week could help determine Fed's timetable for rate cuts

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Inflation data this week could help determine Fed's timetable for rate cuts
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After Federal Reserve officials meet this week, a statement they will issue may suggest that they’ve seen meaningful progress on inflation this year — a prelude to eventual interest rate cuts

FILE - Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference at the Federal Reserve in Washington, May 1, 2024. On Wednesday, June 12, 2024, the Federal Reserve will end its latest meeting by issuing a policy statement, updating its economic and interest-rate projections and holding a news conference with Powell.

A Fed rate cut might give the economy a modest lift, which would be welcomed by President Joe Biden's re-election campaign, which is struggling to counter many voters' unhappiness with the inflation spike of the past several years. Though consumer inflation has slowed dramatically since peaking at 9.1% in mid-2022, it was still 3.4% in April, well above the Fed's target.

At his news conference, Powell will likely reiterate that Fed officials need more confidence that inflation is returning to 2% before they would consider rate cuts, and that this will likely take additional time. The number of open jobs fell in April to the lowest level in three years, though the number remains high by historic standards. And consumers actually cut back on their spending in April, after adjusting for inflation, a sign that high prices and elevated interest rates are pressuring Americans' finances.

Given last year's strong growth and substantial job gains earlier this year, some officials had come to doubt that their rates were high enough. Minutes of the Fed's most recent meeting suggested that some officials had even expressed openness to additional rate hikes.

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