Experts suggest the annual inflation figure could hit the Bank of England's target level
The Consumer Prices Index measure of inflation has been above 2 per cent in every monthly reading since July 2021, reaching a peak of 11.1 per cent in 2022.Pantheon Macroeconomics expects CPI to have hit 2 per cent, while Deutsche Bank Research suggests it will be 2.08 per cent – which would be rounded up to 2.1 per cent.
But Deutsche Bank Research’s chief UK economist, Sanjay Raja, said the figure could be lower, adding: “Further discounting in goods andThomas Pugh, economist at audit, tax and consulting firm RSM UK, said the figure would likely be 2 or 2.1 per cent.However, forecasters generally expect core inflation – which does not include more volatile measures of inflation such as changes to food andDeutsche Bank Research forecasts that this will sit at 3.5 per cent, down from 3.
Many experts have warned that inflation is set to rebound later in the year and go back above the target.warned in a report last month that the inflation figure would increase slightly to around 2.5 per cent in the second half of 2024. The major reason for this is that inflation is measured based on the growth in prices over the past year, so a large part of the figure is based on what prices were 12 months ago.Energy prices started to fall in the second half of 2023, and experts are not currently expecting more dramatic cuts.
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