It is five years since Donald Trump unilaterally pulled America out of the deal with Iran to constrain its nuclear programme in exchange for economic-sanctions relief. Since then, Iran has not stood still
for a nuclear weapon in 12 days. It would need to use only three advanced centrifuge cascades and half of its current stock of 60%-enriched uranium.for four more nuclear weapons in a month. In another two months, using its stock of low-enriched uranium , it could get enough material for two more weapons. It would take about six months to test and deploy a bomb for a crude delivery system, such as a plane or a ship. A missile-delivered warhead might be feasible in a year or two.
Ali Ansari, the director of the Institute of Iranian Studies at St Andrews University in Scotland, reckons the Iranians were never “genuine about a return to theand nor was there much real enthusiasm within the State Department: it was negotiations for the sake of negotiations”.
Moreover, the Gulf Arabs have become much less interested in the Iran nuclear file than either America or Israel. They already regard Iran as a de facto nuclear power. Nor do they have the technical expertise to negotiate with the Iranians on nuclear constraints, even if they wanted to. What they worry about, says Mr Hokayem, is Iran’s missiles, drones and militias. By contrast, Israel feels it can cope pretty well with those.
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