Tom Rogan is a foreign policy/national security writer for the Washington Examiner. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in War Studies from King's College London, a Master of Science in Middle East politics from SOAS, and a Graduate Diploma in Law from the University of Law, London.
With thousands of Palestinian civilians now dead amid the intense fighting in the Gaza Strip, some suggest a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is necessary.
True, Israel could now end its war effort and retain short- or medium-term security versus the terrorist group. Israel's problem is that allowing Hamas to retain its scaled military threat would allow it to perform future atrocities. Following the Oct. 7 atrocity, this would be unacceptable to the Israeli people and government. Yet the more important concern is that, in allowing Hamas to retain its scaled threat, Israel would utterly desecrate its deterrent credibility in the Middle East.
That said, U.S. support for Israel is straining Washington's relations with top allies such as Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Both Amman and Riyadh matter greatly to U.S. national security. The heavy use of Israeli airstrikes to target Hamas and support Israeli ground forces is causing significant civilian casualties. As casualties continue to mount, the risks of an intervention by Iran and/or the Lebanese Hezbollah will grow. That may require U.S.
In turn, there is a compelling intersection of political, humanitarian, and security concerns to justify expanded humanitarian relief for Gazan civilians. But how can this be accomplished without unduly damaging Israel's war effort?The continuation of Jordanian air drops and the formation of international safe zones in Gaza would be positive developments. Expanded Israeli humanitarian corridors that allow Gazan civilians to evacuate areas of intense combat are also preferable.
The best path forward, then, should be clear: a continuation of Israel's war effort, alongside expanded humanitarian provisions.
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