War with Israel could destroy Lebanon’s already fragile economy and political landscape.
The Israel i invasion of Lebanon has begun – and there are reports of heavy fighting between units of the Israel Defense Forces and Hezbollah in south Lebanon , accompanied by airstrikes and shelling of Hezbollah positions.
After a fortnight of missile strikes into Lebanon, Israel claims to have eliminated much of the Hezbollah leadership as well as knocking out a great deal of its military infrastructure. This next phase of the conflict will pose more intense challenges for all involved and presents great risks to the region and beyond.
Global inflationary and cost of living pressures have further undermined the ability of ordinary Lebanese to provide for themselves and their families. The country has haemorrhaged capital in recent years and very few foreign investors have the stomach to risk their money there. Per capita incomes have declined substantially and remain very low at around US$3,300 – down from around US$9,000 in 2018).
War in prospect Even short wars tend to have devastating economic effects that last long after the fighting ends. If history tells us anything about the current conflict we can expect a prolonged and intense fight between Israel and Hezbollah. This war could very easily destroy the Lebanese economy, bringing the entire country to the point of collapse.
A failed state? If economic turmoil and hardship were not bad enough, the Lebanese political landscape remains amongst the most fractured and contentious in the region. In many ways, Lebanon has not had a fully functioning set of state institutions for much of the past five years. Intense political rivalries and divisions between political parties has meant that the government cannot fully function.
But there’s little doubt that one is on the way. Israel intends to permanently shift the balance of power by ensuring Hezbollah is no longer a viable military threat.
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