Joe Biden and Kamala Harris' Chances of Beating Trump in Key Swing States

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Joe Biden and Kamala Harris' Chances of Beating Trump in Key Swing States
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Polling site 538 examined whether Biden or Harris would be the better 2024 Democratic Party candidate in November.

Vice President Kamala Harris has a marginally better chance than President Joe Biden of winning the Electoral College in a 2024 race against Donald Trump, according to analysis.Polling website 538 looked at whether Harris would be a better candidate than Biden against Trump in November amid suggestions she should replace the president as the Democratic Party's 2024 candidate in the wake of Biden's stumbling CNN debate performance.

Elliott Morris, a data journalist at 538, suggests that one of the fundamentals meant to favor Biden—that he is the incumbent heading into November—may not be a factor when considering whether Harris is a better 2024 nominee for the Democrats.

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