Stephen Alpher is CoinDesk's managing editor for Markets. He holds BTC above CoinDesk’s disclosure threshold of $1,000.
Three major central banks are holding policy meetings this week and the results from each are anticipated to be at least somewhat different.
The first decision is set to come Wednesday from the Bank of Japan and analysts are split on whether the BOJ will either raise its policy rate from the current 0%-0.1% or send a signal that a rate hike is soon to come. What's known is that inflation in Japan has been above the bank's 2% target for some time and the yen – though rallying of late – continues to hover near multi-decade lows versus the U.S. dollar.
Next up will the decision by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday afternoon . While virtually no one sees the Fed as cutting the fed funds rate for the first time since 2020, nearly all anticipate the U.S. central bank as indicating its expectation that it will trim rates at its next meeting in mid-September.Early Thursday afternoon in the U.K.
All things being equal, easier monetary policy tends to be good for risk assets such as bitcoin. Markets do tend to anticipate though, and while bitcoin's 56% year-to-date rally is commonly mostly attributed to demand from the U.S.-based spot ETFs, at least some of that move may have come on the expectation that Western monetary policy was about to enter an easing cycle after a multi-year tightening trend.
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