Recent changes to weather forecasting methods by Australia's Bureau of Meteorology have fueled speculation about a rare summer La Nina, despite efforts to curb sensationalist reporting.
There's been much speculation about the likelihood of a rare summer La Nina – which can cause upheaval for commodity supply chains. In Australia, the rumour mill restarted for the New Year as early as January 3 when the country's Sky News weather team declared La Nina to be active. The Australian Broadcasting Corporation took a more tempered approach on January 7 with a headline saying a rare summertime version of the phenomenon 'could be forming'.
And today, January 8, Australian media group Nine Entertainment's 4BC ran a headline reading, 'La Nina poised to hit in the middle of summer for the second time in 75 years'. History has shown the weather event - as well as its El Nino counterpart - can wreak havoc on mining operations. So, should the sector be worried? Maybe not. The information vacuumAndrew King, a climate scientist at the University of Melbourne, and Kimberley Reid, a postdoctoral researcher in climate extremes, co-authored a report in The Conversation on January 7, saying a recent shift in how Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) conducts its forecasts has paved the way for a rise in speculation. BoM, on December 10, announced it was making changes to the way in which it conducts its forecasts, saying at the time, that the changing climate has rendered old methods of prediction less reliable. 'We are moving away from focusing on individual environmental phenomena. In a changing climate it is more difficult to make predictions based on events when they are looked at individually – climate systems are complex and cannot be explained by just one influencing factor,' BoM's climate manager Karl Braganza said.King and Reid said that while BoM's decision partly came as an effort to end sensationalist reporting on El Nino and La Nina, it may have inadvertently had the opposite effec
LANINA WEATHER FORECASTING CLIMATE CHANGE AUSTRALIA MINING
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