Dansby Swanson was the second-most-valuable defensive player in MLB last year, per Statcast’s Outs Above Average. The Chicago Cubs could be dark-horse contenders for the division in 2023. keithlaw explains why.
. This was the best defensive performance of his career, although he was at +8 in 60 games in 2020, a pace of +21.6 per 162 games, so there’s some slight precedent for it. He dropped to +2 in 2021, and some of the gain this past season was just optimized positioning on the part of Atlanta, with some credit to Swanson as well for becoming more consistent and getting better reads overall.
The 2022 season was Swanson’s best-case scenario: 115 wRC+, +21 outs saved, and in 162 games played that’s more than six wins above replacement. He might do that again once in this deal, but even I, as the high man on Swanson’s free agency case, don’t expect more than that.
The Cubs will only end up regretting this deal if Swanson drops all the way to his 2016-18 offensive levels, when his contact quality was substantially lower than it is now , or he suddenly drops to his 2017 defensive level, the only year he’s had a negative OAA — and even that looks fluky in hindsight.
The Chicago Cubs are finalizing a seven-year, $177M deal with shortstop Dansby Swanson, multiple sources confirm to
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