A week ago, Inter Miami was viewed as a longshot to win the MLS Cup, and rightfully so. Now, it’s a completely different story. Odds via BetMGM: ◻️ Last week: +15000 ◻️ Current: +1800 The Lionel Messi effect.
Even with Higuaín, Miami’s attack was one of the worst in the league. Jeff Rueter wrote that Messi is joining the. Since the start of 2021, Miami “ranked rock-bottom in MLS on a per-game basis in expected goals, shots, chances created and touches in the opponent’s box while ranking near the bottom in nearly every other meaningful metric.”
As good as Messi is, and even if he comes with another star player or two, he won’t find it easy to turn this Miami team into an MLS Cup contender right away. He will have less than half the season and a hole to dig out of to make the playoffs. If you bet on Miami when the odds were longer, thinking it was good value, that may still be true, but Miami has work to do to make the postseason. Thankfully, MLS’ postseason format is extremely forgiving. Only six teams from each 15-team conference will miss the playoffs. Seeds 8 and 9 will have a one-match play-in to make the first round, which is now. After that, it’s all single elimination, with the higher seed getting to play at home.
Surprising or even downright random MLS Cup winners are littered throughout the league’s history. The Herons will have a chance if Messi can get Miami to the postseason. For now, Miami is six points below ninth place in the Eastern Conference and has six teams to pass to get there.Subscribe to The Athletic for in-depth coverage of your favorite players, teams, leagues and clubs. Try a week on us.is a staff editor for sports betting at The Athletic.
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