Marine Le Pen has never been so close to winning France’s highest office

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Marine Le Pen has never been so close to winning France’s highest office
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Three conditions would have to be met for Marine Le Pen to close an average eight-point poll gap and beat Emmanuel Macron in the run-off on April 24th

a photo with her!” shrieks a breathless teenaged girl, after securing a selfie with a beaming Marine Le Pen. The nationalist-populist leader, who on April 24th meets Emmanuel Macron in the run-off for the, was on a walkabout in a crowded Provençal village over the Easter weekend. To watch the celebrity welcome offered to Ms Le Pen, as she stoops to hug children or poses for photos with passers-by, is to understand how far she has softened and broadened her appeal.

There is still an eight-point gap for Ms Le Pen to close in the remaining days, however. For that to happen, according to Brice Teinturier of Ipsos, a polling agency, three conditions would have to be met. First, many of the 12.8m voters who abstained in the first round would need to turn out and vote heavily for Ms Le Pen. Second, she would in the second round have to hold on to significantly more of her first-round vote than Mr Macron does.

As the choice between Mr Macron and Ms Le Pen has turned from hypothetical to real, it has put her manifesto under greater scrutiny. The first of its 22 items is a clamp-down on immigration, specifically to end the right of foreign family members to join those legally in France and the automatic right of those born in France to get citizenship. This is wrapped up in a xenophobic discourse that repels much of the left.

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