Melbourne Water will upgrade its decades-old Maribyrnong River flood modelling after it failed to predict that a major deluge would hit hundreds of homes until six hours before disaster struck in October last year.
Melbourne Water will upgrade its decades-old Maribyrnong River flood modelling after it failed to predict that a major deluge would hit hundreds of homes until six hours before disaster struckThe government-owned water authority does not admit to mistakes but places some blame for the failure to adequately warn residents in the city’s inner north-west on the Bureau of Meteorology’s rainfall forecasts.
The flood wall was built in 2007 with a permit granted by then Labor planning minister Mary Delahunty and green-lit by Melbourne Water with mitigation works, despite being opposed by three councils and local residents. Melbourne Water’s submission states that the most recent flood modelling for the lower Maribyrnong River was commissioned in 2003, using hydrological work completed in 1986 as its starting point.
Engineering firm Jacobs was hired to analyse actual data against modelled data, however the results have not been published. “Melbourne Water is undertaking further analysis to understand any discrepancies.”“Extreme rainfall events in greater Melbourne will become more intense through the next century,” the submission states. “This is making it harder to rely on historic data to predict future floods.
“Around 12.30am on October 14, Melbourne Water identified that the real-time data showed the river was rising faster than the model had predicted. Melbourne Water updated its predictions.” Melbourne Water argues in its submission that more needs to be done to help the community understand flood risk, similar to how Victoria improved bushfire preparedness.
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