Bracketology begins the off season projections with a familiar name at the top. Duke, led by generational recruit Cooper Flagg, starts our 2024-25 bracket cycle on top.
There is no longer an off-season in college basketball. With more than 1,500 Division I players changing teams, the majority of programs are dependent on the transfer portal to stock and re-stock their rosters each spring. The resulting tumult creates wide swings in projected performance for the following year, and we're here to track it for you with monthly bracket updates until opening night on November 4.
ESPN's Bracketology efforts are focused on projecting the NCAA tournament field just as we expect the NCAA Division I basketball committee to select the field in March. ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi uses the same data points favored by the committee, including strength of schedule and other season-long indicators, including the NET and team-sheet data similar to what is available to the NCAA, in his projections of the field.
The primary adjustment from a normal year is, of course, the playing of the entire NCAA tournament at a single site. This eliminates the need for geographical considerations in seeding. Additionally, there will be at least one fewer automatic qualifier this season, as the Ivy League's decision to forgo the 2020-21 season reduces the number of AQ entries to 31 for this season.
To minimize travel, first-round pairings will be guided by geography to the greatest extent possible. And the reduced field results in only 32 teams competing at the central site. All participants must post a minimum .500 conference record - the"Lunardi Rule" - for at-large consideration.In this projection, the committee selects and seeds the 16 best available teams. There are no automatic qualifiers, although all non-competing conference champions receive the designated revenue unit.
To maintain some sense of national balance, conference participation is capped at four teams. And no region shall have more than one team from the same conference.
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