Some worry that Claudia Sheinbaum will merely be Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s proxy:
voters in the state of Mexico, the most populous in the country of the same name, will elect a new governor. The vote is widely seen as a testing ground for general elections due next year. Delfina Gómez, a former education minister, is polling far ahead of her rival. If she wins, it will suggest her party, Morena, is well positioned for next year’s polls. Morena was founded by Andrés Manuel López Obrador, Mexico’s leader. He cannot run again.
Once in power Mr López Obrador began executing his political project, a contradictory mix of policies he grandly calls the “Fourth Transformation”. They combine a penchant for 1970s-style nationalism with fiscal hawkishness. Although the president’s rhetoric sounds left-wing, his policies are a more complicated mix. He did away with Mexico’s health-care system for the uninsured, scrapped child-care subsidies for working mothers and canned a conditional cash programme for the poor.
Despite this ideological ragbag of policies, the president is popular. Fully 65% of survey respondents approve of him. That is higher than any recent Mexican president at a similar point in their terms . Many investors are put off by Mr López Obrador. But the country is faring better than other countries in Latin America, such as Brazil. Its proximity to the United States helps, making it a beneficiary of “friend-shoring”, as do Mexico’s 13 trade agreements with 50 countries.
However, Ms Sheinbaum enjoys a widening lead over Mr Ebrard. Opinion polls place her eight percentage points ahead of him. It helps that she is the president’s preferred candidate. For several months Morena’s activists have plastered signs declaring “Es Claudia” across the country—possibly in violation of Mexico’s strict campaign laws.
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